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#1 Mercato Libero

Mercato Libero


  • Ambasadiani MI1-e
  • StellaStellaStellaStella
  • Messaggi: 1,364

Inviato 24 April 2017 - 03:47:00

un quarantenne che sta con la sua insegnante di scuola ...sinistrorso come renzi ...insulso come renzi...fa sognare il vecchiume europeo..
euro mostra i muscoli nei confronti di dollaro sterlina franco svizzero e oro..
insomma VIVA L'EUROPA..con Macron i burocrati si sentono protetti e festeggiano. Lunga vita alla Francia...lunga vita ALL'EUROPA.
stoppato il fantastico mondo della le pen....almeno per attenti...

 analisi di mercato di EL Elrian che condividiamo

What Markets Should Conclude From France's Election

While French voters didn't shock markets by sending both presidential candidates from the  far left and far right to the decisive second round in two weeks,  investors did not get their dream lineup: A contest between Emmanuel  Macron and Francois Fillon, the two most pro-market candidates.
Instead,  the runoff between the National Front's Marine Le Pen and Macron -- the  individual possibility to which the market assigned the highest single  probability -- involves a clear battle between a commitment to shake the  economic system and one to create change within the existing structure.  And this first-round vote doesn’t signal, at least yet, the end of the  anti-establishment phenomenon.
Although counterfactuals are inherently tricky, let’s start the market analysis by discussing what will not happen.
Risk  assets and the spreads on French and peripheral bonds will avoid the  volatility selloff that they surely would have experienced had Le Pen  and Jean-Luc Melenchon, a far-left candidate, made it to the second  round. With that, there will be significantly less risk of destabilizing  capital flows out of the French banking system. At the same time,  markets will not experience the extreme joy that would have resulted  from the opposite outcome, a Fillon–Macron second round.
The  initial market reaction to the actual outcome of the very competitive  first round should be positive for risk assets and the euro,  though not necessarily ebullient. The extent of the rally depends on  what the final numbers say about the strength of Le Pen’s showing,  especially now that both Fillon and Benoit Hamon, the Socialist Party  candidate who was badly defeated, have rushed to throw their support  behind Macron for the May 7 runoff.
Looking  ahead, and based on the widespread conventional view that a majority of  the French electorate will again seek to vote for any alternative to  the National Front, most market participants will likely assume that,  when push comes to shove, Macron will be elected president -- even  though he lacks a political party and now faces the prospect of being  pressed much harder on policy positions and past actions.
If this  scenario were to be realized, markets would do more than avoid an  upfront shock. They also would take France off the list of possible  sources of systemic shock.
The immediate sighs of relief would be  experienced well beyond markets. Two central banks -- the European  Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank -- would be able to shelve  plans to stabilize markets through exceptional measures in order to  avoid wild moves in the currencies, at least for now. The Greek  government would feel slightly more confident about the possibility of  avoiding a debt cliff in the summer, though it still needs to resolve  differences between the International Monetary Fund and European  partners. And Germany would be less concerned about being forced further  into anchoring a euro zone subject to growing forces of fragmentation.
With  the relief, some investors may be tempted to go further and interpret  the result as an indication that the wave of anti-establishment  sentiment that delivered Brexit and the Donald Trump presidency has  dissipated, allowing markets to set aside considerations of political  and geopolitical risk in a more significant manner. But that would be  premature, including when it comes to France, for two related reasons.
  • Not  all the uncertainty in France has been lifted. Even if Macron prevails  in the second round, the country's political system still has to deal  with the fallout from a marginalization of mainstream parties in the  presidential race that is unlikely to extend to the legislative  elections that are scheduled for June. Some form of “cohabitation” -- a  government made up of a president of one party and a prime minister from  another -- will have to emerge, which is far from a straightforward  proposition.
  • Although an immediate extreme outcome has  been avoided, there is no denying that this is another example of an  event deemed improbable not so long ago becoming reality. Remember, few  initially took seriously Macron’s notion of getting to the second round  as he was powered by a movement rather than a party.
Questions  remain, though markets understandably will be relieved by the outcome  of this first round. A potential bullet has been avoided and, absent an  unanticipated shock, the markets already expect the second one to be  avoided in the next round of voting. But it is way too early to declare  an end to the anti-establishment phenomenon that has turned improbables,  if not unthinkables, into realities




  • Ambasadiani MIra
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Inviato 24 April 2017 - 18:19:57

l'Obama francese :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

un pirlon ! :D

#3 giemme74



  • Ambasadiani MI1a
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Inviato 24 April 2017 - 21:27:25

Visualizza messaggioXCXC, su 24 April 2017 - 18:19:57, dice:

l'Obama francese :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

un pirlon ! :D

con complesso di Edipo !

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